Bitcoin rainbow chart
Where Bitcoin’s price sits against its long-term growth trend, in seven bands from deep value to overheated.
Today’s band
Compiled by SBZ from daily Bitcoin prices since 2015. Updated hourly.
Bitcoin’s price on a log scale against its long-term growth trend, calculated by SBZ from daily prices. The coloured bands show how far price has strayed from that trend in the past, from deep value (blue) to overheated (red), and extend to 2028. A long-term guide, not a price forecast. Point at the chart for any date.
What is the Bitcoin rainbow chart?
The rainbow chart shows Bitcoin’s price on a logarithmic scale against its long-term growth trend. Seven coloured bands, from deep value (blue) to overheated (red), show how far the price has strayed above or below that trend in the past. It is one of the simplest ways to see whether Bitcoin looks cheap or expensive relative to its own history.
How we calculate it
We fit a single trend line through every daily closing price we hold since July 2015, with price and time both on logarithmic scales, a shape that has described Bitcoin’s slowing but persistent growth well. The seven bands are set by how far price has historically deviated from that line: the outer bands contain only the rarest extremes, and the middle band the most typical levels. The trend and bands are recalculated as new prices arrive and extended to 2028.
How to read it
Past cycle tops occurred in the upper (orange and red) bands, and the deepest bear-market lows in the lower (blue and teal) bands. In between, price spends long periods moving through the middle of the rainbow. The chart says nothing about timing, and the bands can shift as new data is added: treat it as a long-term guide to valuation, not a forecast.
Need to buy or sell Bitcoin in size?
SBZ’s OTC desk quotes one firm price for the whole order, settled by bank transfer or stablecoins.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Bitcoin rainbow chart accurate?
It is a visual guide to where price sits against its long-term trend, not a prediction. It has framed past cycle tops and bottoms well, but it is fitted to history, so future price can move outside the bands and the bands themselves shift as new data arrives.
What band is Bitcoin in today?
The live band is shown at the top of this page and in bold in the legend under the chart. It updates every hour from the latest daily price.
Why does the chart extend to 2028?
The trend line and bands are mathematical curves, so they can be drawn forward. This shows where each band would sit through the next halving, around April 2028, if the long-term trend holds.
How is this different from other rainbow charts?
Many versions use fixed curves drawn years ago. Ours is recalculated from all daily prices since 2015, with neutral band names, so it reflects the data rather than a meme.
For information only, not investment advice. Figures are updated automatically and can differ slightly between data providers.