Bitcoin NUPL: net unrealized profit/loss
How much paper profit or loss holders are sitting on, as a share of Bitcoin’s market value: the market’s mood in one number.
NUPL today
Compiled by SBZ from public blockchain data. Updated twice a day.
The share of Bitcoin’s market value that is paper profit (above 0) or paper loss (below 0), weekly since 2012. The colours follow the usual phases: capitulation, hope, optimism, belief and euphoria. Past cycle tops came in euphoria, bottoms in capitulation.
What is NUPL?
Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, the total of what every coin was worth when it last moved on the blockchain. The gap is the paper profit (or loss) holders are sitting on, shown as a share of market value. A reading of 0.5 means half of Bitcoin’s market value is unrealized profit; below 0, the average holder is at a loss.
How to read it
NUPL is usually read in five phases: capitulation (below 0), hope or fear (0 to 0.25), optimism or anxiety (0.25 to 0.5), belief or denial (0.5 to 0.75) and euphoria or greed (above 0.75). Past cycle tops came in or near euphoria: weekly readings peaked at about 0.81 in November 2013, 0.77 in December 2017 and 0.75 in February 2021. The 2024 cycle peaked lower, at about 0.63 in November 2024. Bottoms came in capitulation: about −0.47 in January 2015, −0.29 in January 2019 and −0.16 in January 2023. Weekly readings have been below 0 only about 12% of the time since 2012.
Limits
NUPL shows how stretched the market is, not when it will turn: it can stay in one phase for months. Peaks have become lower each cycle as the market has matured, so a fixed threshold such as 0.75 may not be reached again. It works best alongside MVRV, which uses the same inputs as a ratio, and the realized price.
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Frequently asked questions
What does NUPL mean in Bitcoin?
Net unrealized profit/loss: the paper profit or loss of all holders combined, as a share of Bitcoin’s market value. Above 0, holders are in profit on average; below 0, at a loss.
What is a high NUPL?
Readings above 0.75 have been called euphoria and came near the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. The 2024 peak was lower, at about 0.63.
What does a negative NUPL mean?
The market as a whole is worth less than holders paid for their coins. This capitulation phase has come near past cycle bottoms, in 2015, 2018–2019 and late 2022.
How is NUPL different from MVRV?
Both compare market value with realized value. MVRV is the ratio of the two; NUPL is the difference divided by market value. A MVRV of 2 equals a NUPL of 0.5.
For information only, not investment advice. Figures are updated automatically and can differ slightly between data providers.